Strong Recovery in the Automotive Market
Important data: Based on the weekly data reported by key enterprises, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates that the sales volume of the automobile industry is expected to be 2.447 million units with a year-on-year increase of 20.9% in June 2022, and the sales volume is expected to be 12.002 million units with a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% from January to June 2022.
In April this year, affected by the epidemic in many places, China's auto production and sales of automobiles fell significantly to the amount of about 1.2 million, which is the lowest monthly amount for the same period in the past decade. In May, with the easing of the epidemic, the production and sales of automobiles improved and showed a recovery growth, but still showed a downward trend year-on-year. In June, the epidemic continued to ease and with the stimulus of policies, the auto market showed a trend of accelerating recovery, and sales are expected to increase significantly year-on-year.
In addition, the short-term fluctuations in the industry will not change the long-term development trend. According to the relevant institutions, it is expected that in the next few years, China's auto market production and sales will grow steadily, and sales are expected to reach 30 million in 2025. The moderate growth of automobile production and sales will also drive steady growth in steel consumption. By 2025, the cumulative increase in the demand for steel used in the automobile industry may reach 10 million tons. In particular, the accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles will contribute to the main increase in steel consumption, bringing growth to the steel industry.
Relevant policies to promote auto consumption have been introduced. At the end of May, "State Council on the Issuance of a Solid Package of Policy Measures to Stabilize the Economy" proposed to steadily increase automobile consumption, including increasing automobile incremental indicators in areas where purchase restrictions, and relaxing qualification restrictions on car buyers; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Notice on Carrying out 2022 New Energy Vehicles Going to the Countryside Activities", proposing to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and carry out a new round of new energy vehicles going to the countryside activities from May to December 2022.
At the end of last year, relevant agencies generally expected that the production and sales of automobiles would maintain growth this year. The outbreak of the epidemic in some regions this year have a periodical impact on the production and sales of automobiles. At the end of last year, the relevant agencies are generally expected to maintain growth in auto production and sales this year. The epidemic in some areas this year has had a periodical impact. However, under the background of steady growth, the market sales in the second half of the year will increase significantly, driving a certain incremental demand for industrial steel.
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